ENSO (SST/MJO)

ENSO Oceanic Structure


Weekly OLR Anomalies

NCICS

MJO Forecasts

Mike Ventrice

Kelvin Wave Filtered GFS Forecasts (negative velocity potentials in blue/purple shading, active kelvin wave in blue dashes)

MJO With ENSO GFS Forecast

Mike Ventrice

CSF Forecast of OLR with Kelvin and Rossby waves

NCICS

Same CSF Forecast but as a Hovmoller

NCICS

MJO Phase Plot NCEP GFS Ensembles

CPC

MJO Phase Plot ECMWF

CPC

Pacific Omega Anomalies for the past 7 days

Mike Ventrice

Multivariate PNA (Includes MJO indices)

  • This is a relatively new index that has been proposed to help determine which MJO events will impact North America. Think of it as a correlation index of sorts. Included in the index are the NA 200 hPa streamfunctions, 850 winds, and OLR for each phase.
  • You want the opposite MVP based on the phase. For example, phase 4 of the MJO which is known to be warmer in the E. US, will be lessened if the MVP is greater than -0.75. And vice versa, if the phase 4 MJO will have stronger impacts for E. US warmth, the MVP will be <-0.75.
  • Phase 7-8 of the MJO, which contributes to cooler weather in the E. US, will be enhanced if the MVP >+0.75. It will be lessened the further negative the MVP is. So they are essentially opposites.
  • More here Multivariate PNA Proposal

Sea Surface Temperature Forecast

ECMWF Forecast Plumes
ECMWF Plumes
NCEP CFSv2
NCEP SST
Climate Prediction Center
CPC
PSD SST Forecast
PSD Forecast

The CPC website contains SST forecasts from CFS, CMC, NCAR, NASA, IMME. It also has precipitation, 2m temperature, and ensemble probabilities. Very nice resource!

https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/

Subsurface Anomalies

TAO assorted plots

Various MJO Websites and Links

MJO Forecast
NCEP MJO
200 hPa Velocity Potential Forecast
Velocity Potential
CPC ENSO Diagnostic
ENSO Discussion
Convectively-Coupled Kelvin Waves
Mike Ventrice website
Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI Index with ENSO)
MEI Index
MJO Tri-Monthly Composites
Composites
NCICS
Tropical Monitoring
IRI ENSO Discussion
IRI