Short Term Discussion [6/7] Nice Weekend Ahead; Next Week Snapshot

Briefing:

  • Comfortable Weekend
  • Shore forecast looks great
  • Sunday night into Monday rain chances increase
  • Rainy start to next week
  • Below average temperatures to follow

Satellite:

Local satellite shows plenty of cloud cover over the area.

You can also clearly see clouds moving in from the ocean with low level easterly winds. This will keep temperatures down along the shore.

Zooming out a little further, we see quite a bit of cloud cover over the region. Most of it coming from the SW, but there is most certainly noticeable cloud cover moving in off the ocean.


Current Surface Pressure

Cold front has moved through the area and skies will remain free of rain. I expect the cloud cover to remain on and off today.


Forecasts

Low pressure area in the deep south will slowly migrate north over the next 48 hours.

Tomorrow surface pressure map indicates the slow meander. There is also another area of low pressure marching east from the Rockies and Southern Canada.

Sunday will increase the chances of precip as the two low pressure areas get closer to our area.

Sunday will be the final quiet day as precip begins to enter the region late Sunday and overnight into Monday.

Ahead of the rain, NWS has upped our chances of seeing thunderstorms Sunday evening. For now, probability is low, but they are keeping an eye on things.


Temperature Forecast

Today’s high temperatures will be seasonally cool, topping off in the low 80s. Ocean temps in the 60s will make the beaches feel cold in the afternoon with the onshore flow.

Tomorrow will be similar

Sunday slightly colder ahead of the precipitation, most of the area in the 70s. Shorepoints again likely in the 60s.


Surf Forecast

For today, waves likely on the order of 2-4 feet

Tomorrow we will start off much of the same, but later on in the afternoon, wave height will increase in the southern beaches.

Sunday is looking less friendly, with wave heights expected to be >4 feet along most of NJ. Delaware and Maryland beaches may see waves in excess of 6 feet.


A Quick Look at Next Week

Climate Prediction Center is expecting below average temps over much of the eastern 2/3 of the country (except Florida). We will be dealing with the slow moving system. As such the precip amounts and temp anomalies are shown below. We will be on the slightly below average temp side as the much below normal values centers over the Mid-West/Plains.

6 to 10 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

Their top 5 composites are producing a pressure map that looks like it has a large low pressure area of SE Canada and another low pressure area in the SW US

Composite Plot

The models seem to be in overall agreement with this, especially the ECMWF (bottom left)

And our big players of course are low pressure areas (highlighted in yellow). Purple are high pressure areas that will ascend over E. Canada/Greenland and punch of low pressure area over Nova Scotia leading to a backup of flow and slow moving rain systems.

Something to keep an eye on for next week, but for now we should enjoy the next few days off calm weather.

Thank you for reading!


Radar and more: College of DuPage

Mesoanalysis: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#


Local Warnings and Statements NWS Mt. Holly: https://www.weather.gov/phi/


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