Weekly Outlook [6/9]

Overview

  • Wet week ahead
  • Two storm systems this week Monday-Tuesday
  • Another front moves through Thursday
  • Temperatures slightly below average

Current Temp

coolwx

Comfortable and cool across the area today

Current Satellite

Our current Water Vapor shows two distinct features. One, highlighted in yellow, is going to be a rain producer for the day Tuesday. And the other, highlighted in purple, is going to be a quick soaker late tonight into tomorrow morning. This is the area that has been affecting the deep south the last few days as it slowly migrates and lifts out of the U.S this week.

GFS from earlier this AM showed these two features well, with the first low pressure area color modified for easier location. The system further to the west (in blue) is associated with a deeper low pressure complex area up in Canada. The whole complex will shift east for the week and that will increase our precip chances as another front drops through later on.

pivotal

Current surface analysis shows the deep south low and then the cold front dropping in from Canada. They will converge over our area starting late tonight into tomorrow.


Forecasts

12z NAM that just rolled in shows first shot of precip occurring around 9z (5 AM or so). As highlighted in my short term discussion Friday [6/7], there is a chance that this has some rumbles of thunder and lightning with it as it passes through. Elevated convection is possible as the deep south low brings with it warmer air.

pivotal

And as the cold front from the west approaches it will enhance shower activity ahead of it during the day Monday. Possibly some thunderstorms here as well.

pivotal

Early Tuesday morning the front will come through and bring some heavier downpours

pivotal

After the front passes through and the deep south low has lifted out of the area, our next system will drop down and begin to take shape from Canada.

6z GFS Tuesday evening after the front has cleared shows shortwave trough (purple line) dropping down into the Plains which will amplify as both the ridging in front of it and behind it squeeze-play the system between them (blue arrows). The ridging to the east will retrograde into Canada and Greenland, while at the same time the ridging out West will enhance NE-ward, pinning the shortwave trough system south while it amplifies.

pivotal

And we see that progression by late Wednesday into Thursday

pivotal

And that will be a rain producer during Thursday into Friday for the area.

GFS shows impressive height anomalies for this time of year

pivotal

And you can see high pressure anomalies putting the squeeze on the system into the Great Lakes.

Mother nature is going to put on an interesting show this week. The overall evolution of the pattern is abnormal for this time of year. Deep anomalous low pressure area like that is going to be fun to watch. Temperature departures won’t be tremendous due to the time of year we are at, but still, below average temps are to be expected. As the system moves through it will moderate some, so the overall temperature profile won’t be impacted as much.

And following this (as per my monthly outlook), we head to a more zonal pattern overall.


Air Quality:

 - https://files.airnowtech.org/airnow/today/cur_aqi_philadelphia_pa.jpg

Current air quality is clear!

The AQI is based on a scale of 0-500, with 0 being no issues and 500 being very hazardous to everyone and an emergency condition overall. Today we will be between 50 and 100, so generally fine for all people.

More specific air quality information can be found at airnow.gov


Radar and more: College of DuPage

Mesoanalysis: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=16#


Local Warnings and Statements NWS Mt. Holly: https://www.weather.gov/phi/


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