Briefing
- Less humid today
- Chance of isolate storm to the north
- Good beach day
Current surface analysis shows cold front passing through PA and another one behind it over the Great Lakes into Upstate NY. Low pressure area responsible for our storms is off the SNE coast. Temps in the area are in the 70s, comfortable for these early morning hours.
Current radar presentation shows some showers in New York heading ESE. Otherwise skies are clear for much of the region.
Forecast
High temperatures in the area are expected to be in the mid-80s, perhaps a few locations in the upper 80s. The difference today is perhaps about 5-7 degrees from yesterday but the humidity is lessened. The hot spot today will actually be down the shore, with Atlantic City topping out at 91.
Beaches
Water temps are going to be in the 70s right along the Jersey shore. Closer to Atlantic City and Cape May, water temps will be above 74. Really nice swimming weather.
Not much of a rip current risk out there either.
Isolated Chance of Storms
Looking at the upper-levels (400-250mb), we see upper level low pressure lobe dropping in from SE Canada over the northeast. This will bring with it positive vorticity which helps promote motion in the atmosphere. The image below in the blue shading shows the positive vorticity and sitting right underneath it is the showers we see in the radar image above. This blue shading will push ESE and could touch up some thundershowers for the northern parts of our region.
No surprises here, marginal chance of severe weather to the north. Otherwise an isolated thundershower possibility also exists.
Where We Are Headed
A quick sneak peak into the week this week
Here is a North American view of the 500mb pattern for this afternoon. We see our big ridge in the C. US and also some Greenland blocking. We also see our low pressure lobe over the Northeast continue to swing on through. Over into W. Canada there is ridging building from the N. Pacific and connecting over towards Greenland and this will sort of suck out the Greenland block and retrograde that back into the N. Pacific. The low pressure in S. Canada will squeeze out the ridging in the C. US and the pattern will become zonal over the next 2 days.
Blue arrow in the C. US points to an impressive ridge that has built int S. Canada. We can see that Greenland block but also signs that it wants to push out into Alaska.
And so by Tuesday that’s how things progress. We see the Alaskan ridge build as the Greenland block retrogrades out. The Northeast Lobe continues into the N. Atlantic and our ridge in the CUS flattens out and the pattern turns zonal.
When this occurs during the summer and average temps are in the mid-upper 80s for Philly, expect the westerly flow to bump temps into the low 90s. There is potential for another heatwave starting Tuesday.
For now, we will enjoy this nice summer day!
Philadelphia Weather Authority 