7/8 Weather Brief – Elsa Edition

  • Cooler today but still feels like summer
  • Thunderstorms and stalled cold front around this morning
  • Storms throughout the day ahead of Elsa
  • Tropical Storm warnings up along the coast
  • Flooding rains expected

Currently we have a stalled front to the north and weak low pressure nearby

This is setting off some strong storms this morning in NEPA area, particularly Mt Pocono and Stroudsburg

We are expecting storms throughout the day. This morning’s model runs are handling it a little differently from each other, but expecting pop up storms ahead of Elsa as there is some interaction between the tropical cyclone and the cold front that will trigger stormy weather.

Temperature today will be close to 90 but might not make it with the storms and cloud cover

Expected rainfall for tonight into tomorrow is on the order of a few inches for many in NJ. NWS has issued flood watches for E. PA and NJ.

Tropical Storm Elsa is over South Carolina. Expected to turn northeast and move along NJ coast.

Here is the forecast brief from NWS Mt. Holly

Current satellite image

Wave forecast for the shore upon approach appears mostly in the 4ft to 8ft range, big swells out in the deeper waters

Some storm surge is expected as well. Map courtesy of NWPS. Looks like 3-4 feet for SNJ and NNJ into LI.

Probability of tropical storm winds remains moderate for the shore up into Southern New England

NAM shows potential for 50+ mph winds. These are winds at 850mh (5000ft) that could mix down to the surface during heavy rains

As always, stay weather aware for tomorrow! Thank you for reading.

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